Preparing for a (potential) market selloff (2)

波动性会暂时退却,但总会再次来临。这一次应该也不远了。无论阴晴圆缺,投资者的自我修养就是要“每日三省吾身”,即便在最气贯长虹的大牛市里也要准备好30%-50%的回撤。

进一步的,你必须假设自己身处那样级别的回撤中(至于回撤原因并不是最重要的),然后问自己这些问题:

1. Do I have enough cash?

2. Can I stomach a paper loss of portfolio value that at my age may never recover?

3. Are the dividends I am receiving safe, and reliable from my own research?

4. Am I invested in quality companies that can continue to make money and pay dividends?

5. Do I need to SELL any underlying asset to sleep better at night and to preserve needed capital?

6. Have I misled myself into believing that I can withstand a severe decline?

7. Do I know why I am invested and am I sure about it?

如果回答不了这些问题的话,就必须坚决减仓了。

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Gilgamesh

Antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better.